There are no great secrets in the game of Poker. I've heard this time and again by weak players that refuse to work on their game, "If those pro tactics were so good, then why would they share them?" Well Bruce Lee didn't get his ass kicked very often and he published all of his techniques in books for anyone to buy and learn. Knowing the path is much simpler than walking the path. Translation: I can tell you a million times how to play a hand correctly, but you have to play it yourself. It isn't an easy thing to remember what to do in a particular situation when you may not have seen that situation in months if ever; that's where practice makes perfect. I've played so many hands in my 7 years at the table that I've seen just about every possible situation and player type so many times over that my actions are automatic. This includes, but is certainly not limited to, counting down the pot and knowing whether I should call, raise or fold based on the Math without really thinking about it. With enough repetition the Math becomes an involuntary reflex like breathing.
At some point in everyone's Poker learning process they need to know the odds because they either want to know everything about the game or their tired of lying to people and saying that they came out "about even". The following is the basic formula for calculating pot odds, you can verify your results with The3Seat PokerCalc.
First, I count the pot along the way. I usually don't bother to count "small bets" because the pot odds are rarely skewed enough to keep opponents from calling a bet on the flop. The turn is where the real line in the sand is drawn since the betting limits double which makes the pot reduce by half. My technique is simple, the betting round starts off at one small bet (the big blind, the small doesn't really matter to me unless I'm the one in first position). Then you add one for each person that calls and add 2 for any single raise and call; you get the idea. At the end I always divide by 2 so that I get worst case scenario, but your style may differ. Now the blinds add a bit of a twist, but not huge. In an unraised pot you have to look at your call as only half a bet which really opens the door for me, but not nearly as much as a No-limit game so you still can't play complete junk unless you're getting a massive overlay. I.e. With 3 cold callers plus the big blind to act, you're looking at 9:1 (1+1+1+1+.5=4.5*2 since you only have to call a half bet in the SB) to make a call so just about any hand is playable. I still don't get too crazy, like I said, this is Limit and it requires a much stricter discipline than No-limit (at least with my style).
Now if there is a raise with otherwise the same scenario, then you are in a much different position. Not only do you have to call 1.5 small bets so you're looking at least 7.5:1.5 or 5:1 with at best 6:1 if the BB only calls. If the BB raises then you're in for a world of hurt if you try and play the same junk hole cards that make a call much easier at 9:1.
Let's look at another example that includes a post flop scenario. Let's say that you have face cards in Late position and call a single raise pre-flop with 4-way action (including you) only to find yourself drawing to an inside straight and facing a single unraised bet in late position, then it's rarely correct to fold at this point without additional information. You're getting 11:1 to make that call with 4 outs which means you need 11.5:1 to make that call drawing to one more card. This is what I call a "just in case" call because you'll probably get some good action when you make that draw. Remember, you can't think of draws as "possibilities" you have to approach them like the long-term and ask yourself, "if I make this call 1,000 times for the rest of my life with everything else being equal, will I come out ahead?" I.e. Tells come in real handy because you might not want to make that call against a really passive table that will shrivel up and fold if your card hits because you may not make enough to cover the times that you come up short.
Even if you do decide to laydown because you're getting just short (a coat of paint) of the required pot odds to call that single bet. More likely than not, you should make that call to see the Turn. If you get bet into and you can't beat the Ace on the board, then the laydown is much easier by comparison to the Flop.
Now let's look at the real Pot comparison material, which is to say, "How do I calculate my drawing odds?"
1. Cards Unseen (Cu) - These are all of the cards left that you don't know. On the flop, you can see a total of 5 cards, 2 in the hole, 3 on the board which leaves 47 Cards Unseen, we don't care about the discards or other players hands (not just yet). Savvy players should also pay attention to any inadvertantly exposed cards when people discard, whether other players could actually see them or not. That's why should always be paying attention to the game. Some players discard and flash their cards when they throw them in the muck. If I spot a player that tosses their cards higher than they should, I'll even try to sit lower in my seat to glance their discards. All's fair in Love and War.
2. Outs (O) - These are the number of cards that will "make" your hand if you draw them. For example a 4-Flush draw means that you have 9 Outs.
Now the formula. We're going to calculate our odds against making our draw, so:
(Cu-O)/O
To further break this down, think of it as "bad cards" divided by "good cards" or Outs. So Unseen Cards minus Outs (good cards) equals "bad cards". Now divide that number by good cards and you have the Odds Against making your draw.
Back to our example of the 4-Flush draw:
(47-9)/9 = 38/9 = 4.2 = 4.2:1 (Read as: 4.2 to 1)
So if we look back on our previous 4-way action Flop, then you can see that it's extremely easy to make that call, and pretty hard to lay it down on the Turn. Unless...
Now we get into the 3s method of calculating odds. I like to ask myself everytime I'm in a multi-way pot, "Why are they calling?" What are their tendencies? Are they on the same draw as me? Is it the better draw (i.e. drawing to the low-end of the straight or a weaker flush). This is where my cynical side comes through in a pinch because I will immediately "see" that I'm not usually drawing to the full number of Outs that statistically otherwise I would be. I will also go so far as to assume that at least a couple of the pre-flop folders had at least one or two of my outs when they mucked. However, that doesn't mean that I'm going to laydown so easily if someone raises me and shrinks my pot odds. I.e. My balls don't always shrink with the pot odds.
Good example. Saturday I'm sitting in the 4/8 waiting for my No-limit seat when I look down at 82o on the button in the 2s (No, I don't ALWAYS sit in the 3s!!!). The kill was on, so we were really playing 8/16 and I was getting sucked out all day so I make the position raise to narrow the field (ideally to 1, me). Circumstances didn't work out that way since it was such a nutty typical low-limit game so we Flopped 5-way action.
J84 Rainbow.
The action went Check, Check to the 7s who bet, the 8s called I raised my position to see where I was at. The 5s and 6s folded (surprisingly!) while the 7s raised and 8s just called. I didn't wait long and announced, "I have nothing, but I'll cap it". The 7s smirked and called as did the 8s. Now that just told me two things because I was paying attention for the last 45 minutes (although it really only took 8 minutes). 1. The 7s was just betting a pair plus kicker, probably a Jack (maybe KQ), otherwise he would have made it 3-bets. 2. The 8s was a Rock that I put on a Big pair, Queens or Kings, otherwise HE would have raised. That left me in control of the hand, sort-of, but I knew that was only the case because I had position and a pair of balls.
The Turn brought my "money" card, an 8.
The 7s Bet, the 8s reluctantly called and I had my raise in the pot before the 8s finished putting all $16 in the pot to call. The 7s thought about it for a couple of seconds and then folded with a smile. I then put him on overcards (KQ?) and he was a strong enough player to know what the score was. The 8s went into the think tank then reluctantly called again.
The River was a 3. The 8s checked to me and I bet fast and hard to look like I was buying to pot. The 8s thought and thought again, I got bored and almost asked the dealer to call for an action, then after a small eternity he finally and slowly put in his call. I promptly announced, "I have the 8...with a deuce." He just shrugged and smirked, finally he slightly glared at me and flashed his pocket Kings in disgust. I stacked my chips.
Yes, I went out on a thin limb on that hand by capping the Flop. I was really betting that I could push them out of the pot, which I almost succeeded in doing on the River. I just happened to have the nuts. The Nuts? J8483 No, not completely, but I knew this much, he wasn't the type of player to have a 9T or Jacks without raising. That left me with the best possible hand, a set of 8's. The moral, there really isn't one, I overplayed the flop and he underplayed his pocket Kings because he's a passive player. That meant that he made the greater mistake by not capping the bet before I (an obvious aggressive player) could limp for the 3rd bet. I'm just the kind of guy to really punish weaker players by raising when "I have nothing" as I announced before capping the Flop.
If you can't punish weaker players, then you don't know how to play the game; regardless of the odds. So you need to know when to deviate from the Math and take a "flyer" to catch a winner. It's all just a matter of Math and experience and having the guts to make the tough calls, raises and laydowns. The results are the difference between being a long-term winner and loser.
Anyway, I ended up leaving about 15 minutes later since I was feeling physically ill. Might have been all the Sake Friday night...no not possible...but I passed on the No-limit game and went home to chill.
In closing, if you can't raise, then you probably shouldn't be in the pot. Always instantly think fold first, then use the Math, Tells and other information to convince yourself otherwise. Wait until I cover my No-limit strategies where I proudly tell people, "I've never seen two bad cards!" Guess, maybe I'm just lucky...
Game: 4/8 Limit
Location: Cache Creek
Net Gain/Loss: $155
Time: 3.25 Hours
Nicholas has left the 3s